Future Land Use Plan

I.   INTRODUCTION

              The Future Land Use Plan is the most important element of the Comprehensive Plan in that it must be consistent with all other elements while at the same time establishing goals, objectives, and policies in the form of specific land use policies.

The Land Use Plan is to be used as a guide by the Town Council in the decision-making process related to development and redevelopment proposals.

The Plan will generally contain existing land use data; analysis of this data; goals, objectives, and policies; and a future land use map.

II.  INVENTORY

General Setting of the Town

The Town of Indialantic was incorporated in 1952 and has developed primarily as a low density residential community.  It is located in South Brevard County on the barrier island and sits astride the eastern terminus of U.S. #192.  State Road A1A runs north and south through the Town along the easternmost section.

The Town is approximately one square mile in size with commercial, professional, and multi-family use located on or near the two major roads and single family residential use making up the remaining area.

            The Town is almost completely built out, and it is not contemplated that the character of the Town will change over the coming years.  The Town has always taken pride in its low density residential nature, and this element will help to ensure that it continues as such.

It has been estimated by the Brevard County Planning Department that the Town had a population of 2,940 persons in 1995 which would be approximately 6 percent of the population of the South Beaches and 1 percent of South Brevard .

Map 1 shows the Town and its relationship with the rest of Brevard County as well as the County designated Planning Areas.

Description of Land Uses

            The following table summarizes the land use by acreage for 1987 and 1995 and projects the land use by the same categories to 2010.  The Future Land Use map, which is found at the end of this element, depicts the distribution of land use by category to the year 2010.  It is expected that, at that time, there will be little, if any, remaining vacant land.  The Existing Land Use Map (Map 2) follows the discussion of the individual categories of land use.

Population Projections

                Source: Brevard County Growth Management Projections, August, 1996.

Table I

          Acreage Of Land Uses In The Town Of Indialantic, Florida

      Source: Brevard County Planning Department, Real Estate Aerials, Windshield Survey, and 1988 Comprehensive Plan of Indialantic, FL

      * Note: The location of two prehistoric archaeological Shell middens are shown on the Existing and Future Land use Maps; however, since the land has been developed for low density residential use, an acreage figure is not shown.

Residential Land Use

This category includes single family residential units; duplex, triplex, and quadruplex units; and multi-family units. It has been divided into low density, medium density, and high density; and these classifications relate to the following densities:

Low density    -  0 to 4 units per acre
                             Medium density -  > 4 to 15 units per acre
                             High density   -  > 15 to 20 units per acre

*Low density development includes all single family use; medium density includes duplex, triplex, quadruplex, and multi-family development; and high density includes only multi-family development and only that multi-family development which takes place in the Tourist zoning classification.

As previously stated, low density development far outnumbers all other types of residential development with medium density areas adjacent to commercial development and high density areas east of S.R. A1A.  Currently, the existing 418.2 acres make up 62.4 percent of the total land area.

Commercial Development

This land use classification includes retail, office and professional use, hotels and motels, restaurants, service facilities, and similar uses.  Commercial development in the Town can be generally classified as light commercial or neighborhood commercial. There is one shopping center located on S.R. A1A at the north Town Limits, and this particular center is approximately seven (7) acres in size.  The primary tenants are a supermarket, hardware store, and a restaurant.

The remaining commercial development is located along S.R.A1A and Fifth Avenue/U.S. #192 with professional uses located along both sides of Fourth Avenue and Sixth Avenue.

At present, it is estimated that there are approximately 47 acres developed for commercial use which is about 7.0 percent of the total land area.

Recreation and Open Space Use

This category of land use includes both the passive and active areas set aside by the Town for recreation purposes. The largest area is the Indialantic Beach Park and the adjacent acreage purchased by the County and called James H. Nance Sea Turtle Park.

The remaining recreational acreage is generally found in  passive small facilities located throughout the Town.  The total amount of land devoted to this category is approximately 13.8 acres or about 2 percent of the total land area.

Public Facilities Use

This category includes public buildings such as the Post Office and Town Hall, private institutional uses such as churches, utility substations, and streets and rights-of-way. Naturally, the largest acreage within this category is devoted to streets and rights-of-way which make up 95 percent of the acreage.  It should be noted that although there are no educational facilities within the Town, there is an elementary school and a junior high school located approximately one block from the north Town Limits.

The total acreage devoted to public facilities use is approximately 159.4 acres which is about 24 percent of the total land area.

Vacant Land

The vacant land within the Town can be considered to be of an in-fill nature.  It consists of residentially platted but undeveloped lots and vacant out-parcels within the commercial areas.

There is a total of 31.5 acres within this category representing almost 4.7 percent of the total land area.

Historic Use

The Florida Department of State, Bureau of Historic Preservation, indicates that there are two prehistoric archaeological shell middens located in the Town.  These have been shown on the Existing and Future Land Use Maps; however, the sites have been developed for single family residential use.

III. NATURAL RESOURCES ANALYSIS

Normally, natural resources affect the land use pattern in an area; however, in this case, the Town is almost completely developed.  Certainly, the Town has many natural amenities in including the Indian River and the Atlantic Ocean.  The following discussion will touch upon the natural resources of the Town of Indialantic.

Topography

The Town lies on the barrier island which extends from the Atlantic Ocean to the Indian River Lagoon.  The area is basically flat but has an elevation of approximately 20 feet at the dune line and 9 to 10 feet from S.R. A1A back to Riverside Drive and drops off to about 5 feet at the lagoon.  The U.S.G.S. map (Map 3) indicates the existing topography.

Climate

The climate is considered to be humid subtropical, tempered by the moderating effect of the ocean and the lagoon.  The summer season extends from April to mid-October with mild dry weather the rest of the year.  The summer weather is dominated by east and southeast tradewinds with temperatures which may reach as high as 100deg F.

More than one-half of the annual rainfall occurs during June, July, August, and September.  Winters are generally mild with temperatures averaging 64E F to 72E F with lows only occasionally going below 32E F.

General Geology and Hydrology

The occurrence, movement, availability, quality, and quantity of ground water in the Region are closely related to its geology. The Region is underlain mostly by marine limestone, dolomite, shale, sand, and anhydrite that range in total thickness from about 5,500 to 12,000 feet in different parts of the Region. Below these depths, the granites and other crystalline rocks of the basement complex occur.  Only about the top 2,000 feet of sediments, which have been penetrated by water wells, will be discussed in this report.  A summary of the properties of the formations is given on the following table:

TABLE II

Summary of the properties of the geologic formations penetrated by water wells in the East Central Florida Region

   Source: Appraisal of Water Resources in the East Central Florida Region, William F. Lichtler.

Soils

Soils do not present a problem for development in the Town. The most predominant soil association is the Galveston-Urban Land Complex (Ga) which are well-drained sandy soils.  There is one small area of Pomello (Pu) which is moderately well-drained sandy soil located on broad low ridges formed in thick beds of marine sand.

Also, there is one small area of the Welaka series which is a well-drained sandy soil.  These areas are shown on the following map taken from the 1974 Brevard County Soil Survey prepared by the Soil Conservation Service.

Extractable Minerals, Timberlands, and Wetlands

There are none of the above within the Town Limits.

Flooding

The Town is subject to periodic flooding from the Indian River and the Atlantic Ocean and is particularly vulnerable during hurricanes.  The 100 year flood prone areas are shown on maps and are generally those areas east of S.R. A1A and from Ramona Avenue west to the Indian River.  The key to these areas is shown on the page preceding the map.

IV.  POPULATION AND ECONOMY

This section of the element analyzes the development trend and problems associated with it.  Since the development pattern of the Town has been set, it can be assumed that no drastic changes will occur.

Population

The population of the Town has gradually increased over the years, and it can be anticipated that the population will peak in the year 2010.  The Town is primarily a residential community which is based upon single family development.

The following tables indicate estimates for the peak non-resident population as well as the resident population.  These figures are given for 1995, 2000, 2005 and 2010.  When peak non-resident population figures are added to the resident figures, the total or functional population is derived.  This functional figure should be used to determine the future demand for urban services.  Finally, Appendix A indicates the methodology used to determine the projection of peak non-resident population and Appendix C, the resident population.

TABLE III

Seasonal Housing Units

Source: 1990 Census, Building Department Data, Real Estate Multiple Listing Service

TABLE IV

Peak Seasonal Non-Resident Population

TABLE V

Total Peak Population

Economy

The population of Indialantic depends upon the industrial base of the South Brevard mainland.  Although the Town does have limited retail and professional activities along its two main arterial streets, it is primarily a residential community.  There are no significant tourist facilities in the Town, and the visitors to the Town can be considered to be, for the most part, day tourists.

V.     ANALYSIS OF THE NEED FOR REDEVELOPMENT

There are no blighted areas in the Town and the overall condition of both commercial and residential structures can be said to be excellent.  Substandard lots are considered to be potentially blighted areas by the State definition.

The Town has a strict zoning code and there are almost no inconsistent uses which are in need of being eliminated.  The development or redevelopment of areas which are located Seaward of the Coastal Construction Control Line (CCCL) are controlled by the Town and the Department of Environmental Protection, and it can be assumed that this development will be consistent with the coastal guidelines.

VI.  ANALYSIS OF THE DEVELOPMENT AND  REDEVELOPMENT OF FLOOD PRONE AREAS

The FIRM Flood Insurance Rate Map for the Town was published on April 3, 1989.  As can be seen from the FIRM map reproduced in a previous section, the A- and V- zones along the Atlantic Ocean are between S.R. A1A and the ocean, and the A- zones adjacent to the Indian River extend from the River to Riverside Drive.  All of these areas are within areas subject to some flooding.

Areas along the Atlantic Ocean

The areas along the Atlantic Ocean within the CCCL are now strictly controlled by the Town and DEP, and it can be expected that all future development and redevelopment will meet rigid State standards for construction.  The area is almost completely developed and the structures are relatively new, but some redevelopment can be expected.

Areas along the Indian River

This area is, also, almost completely developed and contains predominately single family structures.  There is a small area along Riverside Drive in the vicinity of its intersection with Fifth, Fourth, and Sixth Avenues which has been developed for commercial and professional use.  There is, also, a large church property in this same area.  It can be expected that any development or redevelopment within these areas will meet the necessary building criteria for construction established by FEMA.

VII. ANALYSIS OF THE AVAILABILITY OF FACILITIES AND SERVICES

All of the urban services are discussed in other elements of this plan; however, a brief overview will be given here. Sanitary sewer and potable water are furnished by Brevard County and the City of Melbourne, respectively, and all areas of the Town have both services.  Drainage facilities are maintained by the Town and although an overall drainage plan exists, it would appear that an update will be necessary.

Transportation facilities include two major highways, S.R. A1A (north of U.S. #192) and U.S. #192, and the County maintained Riverside Drive.  Projected traffic counts indicate that Riverside Drive north of U.S. #192 may have to be widened; S.R. A1A south of U.S. #192 may have to be widened; and a new causeway or bridge be built south of Melbourne Beach connecting the mainland.  The improvement of these facilities will be a result of development outside of the Town Limits rather than an impact coming from the development of the remaining vacant acreage in the Town; however, completion of all of them (and especially the proposed southern causeway) could materially lessen the intense traffic load which now bisects the Town.

Solid waste is collected by Harris Sanitation, a private contractor, and the disposal facilities are operated by Brevard County.

Development orders or building permits have been issued only for small professional and commercial uses and single family houses.  The infrastructure is sufficient to support these uses.

VIII. ANALYSIS OF THE CHARACTER AND MAGNITUDE OF EXISTING VACANT OR UNDEVELOPED LAND

 As previously stated, there are approximately 31.5 acres of undeveloped land which makes up almost 4.7 percent of the total land area.  Most of this land is developable both from the soils and topography standpoint (with the major exception of lands lying seaward of Wave Crest Street which are inherently unsuited to major construction), and its development will not unduly impact either natural resources or historic resources.

IX.  ANALYSIS OF THE AMOUNT OF LAND NEEDED TO ACCOMMODATE THE PROJECTED POPULATION

 As has been stated previously, the Town is almost completely built-out with the exception of scattered sites which total approximately 31.5 acres.  The following acreage amounts will be needed to accommodate the expected future population increase of 285 persons between the years 1995 and 2010.

Residential Use - This classification is broken down into low, medium, and high density, and based upon the amount of acreage remaining to be developed, it can be expected that 11 acres will be developed for single family use at approximately 4 units per acre; 4 acres at approximately 12 units per acre; and 3 acres at 16 units per acre.

Commercial Use and Professional Use - It can be expected that 3 acres will be developed for commercial use which include hotel and motel usage.

Public Facilities Use - This land use should have a negligible increase within the planning period.

Other Land Use - No other acreage amounts are considered necessary to accommodate the projected population.

Appendix B indicates the methodology used to determine the required acreage for future land uses.

X.   GOALS, OBJECTIVES, AND POLICIES

Goal 1:       Maintain and perpetuate the primarily low density residential character of the Town with all other uses of land being secondary in nature while at the same time providing for commercial and professional areas to meet the needs of the residents.

Objective 1:  The Town will continue to manage future growth, development, and redevelopment through the preparation, adoption, implementation, and enforcement of necessary land development regulations by a date consistent with the requirements of Section 163.3202, Florida Statutes.

Policy 1.1:   Adopt new regulations or implement existing land development regulations that will contain specific and detailed provisions necessary to implement the Comprehensive Plan, and which as a minimum:

(a) Regulate the subdivision of land if necessary.(The entire town is already platted.)

(b) Regulate the use of land and water consistent with this Element and ensure that land uses are compatible with adjacent land uses in the County and the Town of Melbourne Beach.

(c) Regulate areas subject to seasonal and periodic flooding and provide for drainage and stormwater management.

(d) Regulate signage and ensure safe and convenient on-site traffic flow and vehicular parking needs.

(e) Protect aquifer recharge areas. (There are no potable water wellfields in the Town.)

(f) Protect environmentally sensitive areas adjacent to the Indian River Lagoon and the Atlantic Ocean.

(g) Provide that development orders and permits will not be issued which result in a reduction of the level of services for the affected public facilities below the level of service standards adopted in this Plan.

(h) Regulate the development of single family residential lots and all fifty-foot multiples.

Policy 1.2:   Land development regulations adopted to implement the Plan will be based on and be consistent with the following standards for residential densities:  low density - 0 to 4 units per acre; medium density - greater than 4 to 15 units per  acre; and high density - greater than 15 to 20 units per acre.

Policy 1.3:   Maintain and use existing commercial zoning restrictions to maintain commercial areas along Fifth Avenue and A-1-A; provide for professional uses on Fourth and Sixth Avenues; and provide for public facilities, utilities, and recreational  uses in areas which are compatible with residential uses.  Within all commercial districts no structure shall exceed thirty-five (35) feet in height (except for decorative portions of a structure, such as but not limited to parapets, spires, and elevator structures, that may be exempted from time to time by Town land development regulations).

Policy 1.4:   Continue to evaluate the need for a downtown study to ascertain the needs for the Town including commercial and professional use, parking areas, and traffic flow.

Policy 1.5:   Maintain existing zoning pattern which protects the single family areas from the encroachment of incompatible uses and which provides for a mix of residential and non-residential use consistent with the low density residential character of the Town.

Objective 2:  Continue to implement a strong code enforcement program to prevent blighted areas from developing.

Policy 2.1:   Strictly enforce building and zoning codes to ensure that blighted areas do not get established.

Policy 2.2:   Appoint effective Code Enforcement Board members who will ensure that the intent of the Code is carried out.

Objective 3:  Conduct a survey of the Town in 1989  By July, 2000, conduct a survey to determine if there are uses which are inconsistent with the character of  the Town.

Policy 3.1:   Continually review the zoning code to ascertain if there are any uses permitted or loopholes to allow any uses which are not consistent with the low density character of the Town and amend the Code accordingly.

Policy 3.2:   Continually review the existing zoning pattern to ascertain the development which could take place if all development occurred at the maximum density or intensity.

Objective 4:  By a date consistent with Section 163.3202, Florida Statutes,  The Town will continue to insure that natural and historic resources are protected from development activities by both educational programs and the adoption of any necessary ordinances.

Policy 4.1:   Provide educational information to the residents through the Town=s Newsletter as to the effect of fertilizer run-off and the dumping of yard clippings and other debris into the Indian River.

Policy 4.2:   Continue to encourage the planting of native vegetation within the Town through the landscaping regulations.

Policy 4.3:   Evaluate the need for the adoption of a  Continue to enforce the tree protection provisions of the landclearing regulations.

Policy 4.4:   Continue to utilize the water shortage ordinance.

Policy 4.5:   Work with other State and Federal agencies in the cleaning up and preservation of the Indian River Lagoon and the beachfront.

Policy 4.6:   Historic resources shall be protected through designation as historic sites by the State and by the Town.

Policy 4.7:   Insure that the Town's goals, objectives, and policies are consistent with those of the Indian River Lagoon Comprehensive Conservation and Management Plan.

Objective 5:  The Town will coordinate yearly with the East Central Florida Regional Planning Council and Brevard County with respect to population densities and projections in its plan as they relate to the hurricane evacuation plan described in the Coastal Management and Conservation Element   of this Plan.

Policy 5.1:   Use the population densities outlined in the Plan to project the evacuation impact of the Town on the overall evacuation plan for the Beaches.

Objective 6:  The Town will coordinate with Brevard County and other public agencies to provide for suitable land for utility facilities necessary to support proposed development in the Town.  These agencies are discussed in the Infrastructure Element.

Policy 6.1:   Effective upon a date Consistent with the requirements of Section 163.3202, Florida Statutes, the Town will continue to condition development orders, including but not limited to building permits, upon the availability of the public facilities and services necessary to serve the proposed development at the levels of service adopted by the Town in the Plan.

Objective 7:  Encourage the use of innovative land development regulations.

Policy 7.1:   During 1989, The Town shall negotiate maintain its interlocal agreement(s) with Brevard County to participate in an impact fee program to collect funds for the expansion of county and state roads transportation facilities and correctional facilities.

Objective 8:  Discourage the proliferation of urban sprawl.  (Since the Town is almost completely built-out, this objective does not apply.)

Objective 9:  Coordinate with any appropriate resource planning and management plan prepared pursuant to Chapter 380, Florida Statutes, and approval by the Governor and Cabinet. (This objective does not apply to the Town.)

Appendix A

Methodology for Projecting Peak Non-Resident Population

The peak season for tourists is December to April.  This is reflected in the electric meter connections for the Town. No particular day was chosen for the peak day; however, it can assumed that December through March are the peak months.

Non-residents were grouped into three categories: hotels and motels, rental multi-family units, and units held for occasional use.  The development pattern for hotels and motels in the beach area will probably limit the number to the existing 94 units which were held constant through the year 2010.

A review of the South Brevard Area Board of Realtors multiple listing service which has a category for seasonal units indicated that in 1990 there were about 20 units in this category.  This figure was arbitrarily increased by 20 for each time period.

The figure used in the 1990 Census for units held for occasional use was 67, and this figure was adjusted based on vacancy rates and then projected at the same ratio for each time period.

All units were assumed to be 100% occupied with a population per unit of approximately 2.5 persons.

Appendix B

Methodology for Determining Required Acreage for Future Land Uses

In order to determine the required acreage for future land uses, the existing acreage in each category was used along with the vacant acreage remaining and its expected land use.  The Housing Element was extensively used for residential projections, more particularly those sections entitled Projected Housing Needs and Land Requirements for the Estimated Housing Needs -

Residential Land Use   

1.  Population increase was determined for 1995 and 2010.

2.  Number of dwelling units was projected based upon household size.  This amounted to 140 units from 1995 to 2010.

3.  Projected type of dwelling unit as to single family and multi-family.  This amounted approximately 44 single family units and 96 multi-family units.

4.  Differentiated between medium and high density for multi-family growth.

5.  Determined the needed acreage based upon single family and multi-family.

Commercial and Professional Land Use

1.  Evaluated the existing percentage of land developed for commercial and professional use.

2.  Evaluated the existing vacant parcels as to zoning and potential commercial and professional development. Used this figure for projected use since it was more realistic.

Public Facilities

1. Negligible increase projected.

Appendix C

Methodology for Projecting Resident Population

The resident population projections presented in this element were determined by using the same methodology as that used by the Brevard County Growth Management Department and approved by the State on December 15, 1987 and updated in August, 1995.

In general, the basis for the projections and the methodology used was trend extrapolation.  The variables projected included population and occupied dwelling units which were projected by total County, Planning Area, and Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ).  The Town of Indialantic contains two TAZS and a small portion of a third.  These TAZS are small well defined geographic areas of homogenous socio-economic characteristics.

Elements of the Projection Methodology                    

     The methodology applied for these projections attempted to create a synthesis between quantitative measures of future growth and intuitive judgment.  The major components of the projection method included the following:

Major Projection Components

             *  Past growth trends

             *  Available residential land

             *  Non-developable land

             *  Housing density

             *  An areas'carrying capacity

             *  Future land use plans

             *  Accessibility to employment/shopping

             *  Projected household size

             *  Known near-term developments

             *  Judgmental analysis of local planners

These components were brought together through both manual and qualitative means.  The supportive data and preliminary analysis were largely accomplished by manual methods aided by computer analysis.  The actual TAZ projection was the result of a computerized modeling scheme which utilized three custom designed computer templates and a final allocation computer program to distribute the results of the template analysis.  These are discussed in detail in the following sections.

Geographic Area Projection

The Town of Indialantic lies within the planning area known as the South Beaches which extends from the Pineda Causeway at the north end to Sebastian Inlet at the south end.  This geographic area was projected in order to provide a guide for the TAZ projections over time.

The basis for the geographic area projection was least squares regression trend analysis performed on active residential electric meter data.  In the Town as well as the geographic area, residential meters are a very accurate surrogate measure of occupied households.

Four projections of residential meters were made.  The first was based upon 1970 to 1991 data; the second, upon 1976 to 1991 data; and the third, upon 1980 to 1991 data.

The projection based on twenty-one years of data provided the  long range projection of occupied households while the projection based upon ten years of data provided the short range forecast.  It was felt that the near future would be influenced by events that have occurred over the last few years.  Over time, however, population trends can be expected to return to the long range trend, which reflects periods of rapid growth caused by the cyclical nature of economic activity.

Traffic Analysis Zone Projection

As previously mentioned, the analytical process developed to arrive at TAZ projections involved inputting data into three custom computer templates and then inputting the data derived from this analysis into an allocation program.  The numerous calculations required of this particular methodology were eliminated.  Each computer template quantified particular projection components.  These three templates and the calculations they performed are shown on the following pages.

Template 1 (Employment/Commercial Attraction Relative)

The first analysis undertaken for each area was to quantify the relative attraction to major employment and commercial centers of each zone.  Measurements were made from the centroid location in each TAZ to every respective employment or commercial area.  The most mileage efficient route was calculated.

This data was then entered into the spreadsheet template. The template added overall mileage of each zone to attractions and calculated attraction of each zone compared with the average of all zones.

Template 2 (Comprehensive Plan/Future Land Use Relative)

The second level of analysis attempted to integrate future restrictions and plans for development based on local compresive plans.  In this analysis, weights were assigned to each land use category.

This analysis used four differing residential land use categories.  These are urban, urbanizing, urban fringe and rural exurban.  Each category places different restrictions and density requirements on the land.  The percentage of each TAZ within each land use category was manually calculated and then entered into the second computer spreadsheet template.  The weights applied to each category were automatically calculated as well as each zone's relative compared to the average of all zones.

The relatives derived from the first analysis were then entered into the second template and added to the land use relative to arrive at a combined relative of attraction and future land usage.

Template 3 (Land Use, Carrying Capacity and Growth Relative)

In the third template, an analysis was made of the relative growth experienced within each traffic zone.  Also, land use was examined in respect to overall density and available residential land for future development.

From this information, the overall residential land use density was ascertained as well as the possible carrying capacity of each zone, based on current density levels.  All the calculations necessary to arrive at these figures were carried out on the computer worksheet.

The Allocation Program

This program, written in Basic, performed the repetitive tasks of allocating dwelling unit growth between TAZS based on the information derived from the previous analysis.  Essentially, it asks for overall increase for each five year period of the geographic area and then does the following calculations which can be expressed as:

   Zonal Relative       =   Relative Growth + Attraction/Land Use

                             1980-1990              Relative

   TAZ Final Relative   =   Zonal Relative x (Capacity/1000)

                            *If capacity 1000 units or more then x 1

   % Allocation         =   Final TAZ Relative

                            Total of all TAZ Relatives

   Final Dwelling
   Unit Allocation      =   Zonal % Allocation x Geographic Area

                             5 Year Increase

In order to simulate the effect of diminishing land availability on growth, the following assumptions were made.

If the dwelling unit capacity of a zone was over 1000 units, it was assumed that there would be no restrictions on growth in that particular zone.  If, however, the zonal capacity was below 1000 units then land availability would begin to exert an influence on development.  Thus, as the capacity of the zone diminished, its affect on the final relative becomes more pronounced until upon reaching zero, no growth would occur.

Converting Occupied Dwelling Units to Population.  When the occupied dwelling unit figures were completed, population figures were generated based on each zones projected population per household size.  Changes in the population per household size were projected using national projections of household size and then these rates were applied to the individual geographic areas and traffic analysis zones.  The 1990 Census information on traffic analysis zone household size data provided the base for the local projections.